Ukrainian membership of NATO: Unwise and unwanted.

Ukrainian membership of NATO, much discussed and speculated upon until the Russian invasion of Georgia, is now on hold. It would very likely be better for all concerned if it is postponed indefinitely. Former Ukrainian Parliamentary Speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk has clearly stated that his country's membership of NATO is not currently on the agenda. "No one has proposed us to become a NATO member”, he has said, "Ukraine is not ready to join NATO today, moreover, NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine today ". Yatseniuk believes that the question of membership of the Alliance "is today used as a card in political elections...In other words, we are speaking about what will happen neither tomorrow nor the day after tomorrow”. Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko, formerly an advocate of NATO membership, has herself conceded that barely 25% of the Ukrainian people support such a move. Interestingly, as she has pointed out, 60% of the people do approve of the idea of their country moving ever closer to the European Union. However, public opinion is somewhat tempered by the perception that certain EU states, not least Germany, are becoming a little too cosy with Russia. All of this is significant, as it gives us an idea of the Ukrainian people's desire to identify themselves and their future not with the west per se, but specifically as western Europeans. As befits a large and resourceful nation, which prior to the economic crisis was developing and diversifying its economy at an impressive rate, and which has successfully shaken off the yoke and embraced democracy, the Ukraine sees itself as a significant player in the EU of the future. Antipathy towards Russia betrays the fact that Russians have always overestimated the closeness of their relationships with their former fraternal socialist allies. It should be remembered that when German forces entered the Ukraine after Barbarossa, they were seen as liberators, not invaders. Similar attitudes also exist in the Baltic states, which integrated themselves with NATO and the EU at the earliest possible opportunity. Non-membership of NATO is in no way incompatible with Ukraine playing an important role in Europe's security. There are many nations, Ireland, Sweden, and Austria, for example, that remain outside of the Alliance, and are no less integrated than any other member state in the EU's fledgling defence plans. In any event, upgrading forces to NATO standards would place too heavy an economic burden on Ukrainian financial resources. In fact, Ukraine actually finds itself in a potentially key, catalytic position, as the Europe seeks to realign its security forces to reflect the needs of the post-cold war world. By engaging with the EU rather than NATO, Russian perceived fears would be assuaged, as the US would be seen to be taking a lower profile role in Europe's defences. Russia's concerns, entirely legitimate from their perspective, have already caused the Kremlin to reassess the Conventional Forces in Europe agreement, a highly regrettable development for all sides. Ukrainian membership of the EU is probably inevitable. Its membership of NATO is both unnecessary and undesirable for all parties. Its own relations with Russia are unlikely to be adversely affected, as Moscow will see the benefits in the reduction of US influence. For Europe and Russia, Ukrainian integration is a "win-win" situation.