Medvedev's Reshuffle: The Power Base Shifts
President Medvedev conducted a small reshuffle last week, which has been completely overlooked in the west, but which may represent a further marginalisation of Prime Minister Putin as the two men prepare to compete in upcoming Presidential elections in 2012.
Viktor Cherkesov was head of the Federal Arms Procurement Agency, a job in which he appeared to be spectacularly inept. A former KGB officer, Cherkesov rose to prominence in 2004 when he was appointed as head of the powerful Federal Drug Control Agency, which some analysts say was created to oversee the activities of the FSB, and to serve as a counterweight.
He fell out of favour when he began to leak information about infighting amongst the Siloviki, the shadowy Mafia-like group that controls - and indeed owns - most of Russia. Putin is very much the Godfather of the Siloviki, with Medvedev playing Duvall's Tom Hagen to Brandon's Don Corleone.
To continue the analogy, Cherkosov might have been cast as Fredo (as played by John Cazale) - inept, immature, corruptable, and with a confused sense of loyalty.
Cherkosov has now exited stage left, with Stanislav Belkovsky, founder of Moscow-based National Strategy Institute, remarking that “Cherkesov will now most likely be put in charge of some federal committee for putting bracelets on seagulls.”
The important aspect of this development, is that following Medvedev’s decree, the Federal Arms Procurement Agency was moved from its direct subordination to Vladimir Putin’s government structure to the jurisdiction of the Defence Ministry. This represents a weakening of the Putin empire. More power will now accrue to Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, appointed to his office by Putin, but considered by many to be a reformist and a realist in the mould of Medvedev.
Medvedev has been using the global economic crisis as a stick to beat Putin with - the Prime Minister has responsibility for the economy - but has been carefully chipping away at his mentor's power base in other areas too.
Putin's pet project, the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics, look like becoming an economic and environmental disaster, and we can expect that between now and the 2012 Presidential elections a great deal of information about this debacle will be allowed to "leak".
POLITICIANS - BODY LANGUAGE
Gary,
They say a picture can speak louder than words.
And in this photograph you have chosen, this is certainly the case.
President Medvedev in the shadow of Putin looks thoughtful, serious and a little uncertain. He does not exude the power of Presidency, more the face of a worried man, desperately trying to undermine his rival Putin (and probably unsuccessfully) and desperately to retain his Presidency.
Medvedev does not excude the absolute confidence and strength of character, needed for being a President and this is absolutely essential if he wants to retain his Presidency.
An uncertain and nervous looking President will not appeal to many Russians, as historically, the Russians have always favoured very very strong and tough personalities.
Can you think of one weak, nervous Russian President?
Meanwhile, Putin, at the forefront of the photograph looks his usual shrewd, calculating, scheming, ruthless, self.
Some men take to power like a duck to water and Putin is one of them.
Nothing, no-one, least of Medvedev will be able to disable him, or frustrate his purposes for obtaining his goals.
It takes a certain kind of toughness and ruthlessness to keep positions of great power and Mednedev's nervous, weak persona somehow does not reflect this.
MELANIE PHILIPS